Published on March 4th, 2013 | by Ivan Martin0
2013 Elections Library Poll: How will the Library Vote?
A third of University students who frequent the UM Library will vote PN this Saturday, Insite’s 2013 Election Library Poll has revealed. This contrasts sharply with national polls that have consistently shown Labour to be in the lead.
Over 400 students at the University Library were asked which party they will vote for in this weekend’s general election, averaging approximately 100 daily responses between 26th February and 1st March. Students studying at the Library on these days were given the following options: PN, PL, AD, ‘Not Voting’ and ‘Don’t Know’.
In line with the idea that University is traditionally a Nationalist stronghold, PN held a comfortable lead from the get go, leading the poll with a total 10.7% margin.
A high amount of ‘Don’t know’ votes was also registered, reflecting nation-wide polls, which are claiming that as much as a quarter of the electorate is still undecided.
The poll reflects pleas made by both the Prime Minister and Opposition Leader in an attempt to secure floating voters last weekend. The Library Poll revealed that 22% of students haven’t made their minds up – the same as the number of students who said they would be giving PL their vote.
One in three respondents is either undecided or would not reveal who he or she intends to vote for (see: Don’t Know & Not Voting), equalling the number of students who said they would be voting PN.
As indicated in nation wide polls, these two categories are instrumental in determining this week’s general election. At a mass rally held in Sliema yesterday, Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi urged party supporters to ‘convince two people to vote PN each.”
7% of Library Poll respondents indicated they would vote AD. Nationwide polls consistently indicate a sharp increase in those who decline to answer as polling day draws nearer.
AD voters seem to be the most volatile category. When margin of error is taken into consideration, AD suffers the highest percentage shift. Margin of error calculations point towards the possibility of AD votes being between 2% and 8% (A drop to from 7% to 2% would mean a 71.5 % decline in Library Poll respondents who would vote AD.)
This could be a result of students’ desire to vote AD being overwhelmed by party pressures and/or ties to the major parties, and is also reflected in nation wide polls.
Among the 1% of miscellaneous responses were references to Independent candidate Nazzareno Bonnici ["Tal-Ajkla"] and expletives directed towards the survey.
Disclaimer: The sampling frame may not include all elements of the whole student population. Insite acknowledges that the student population at the Library may not be representative of the entire University.